Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, has emerged as a crucial target for the resistance as anti-regime groups advance southwards following their capture of territory in northern Mandalay Region.
People’s Defense Force groups under the civilian National Unity Government (NUG) have encircled and penetrated the city while continuing to attack surrounding junta positions.
The Central Military Command headquarters at Mandalay Palace is facing a barrage of drone and rocket bomb attacks. The junta is scrambling to shore up its defenses as speculation mounts that the city is about to fall.
Capturing Mandalay is seen as crucial to maintaining the revolution’s momentum and challenge to junta rule. The second city is the hub for military operations in the central region and reinforcements and supplies for upper Myanmar.
However, military analysts argue resistance forces must first seize the junta’s garrison town of Pyin Oo Lwin. This mountain fortress, located 74 kilometers east of Mandalay city, houses the Defense Service Academies and military training schools.
“Pyin Oo Lwin is located at a vantage point regarding Mandalay city. Resistance forces will be trapped if they attempt to seize the city without capturing the garrison town first,” a military analyst monitoring the resistance advance told The Irrawaddy.
He explained that the junta could deploy reinforcements from Pyin Oo Lwin to Mandalay city along several routes.
Pyin Oo Lwin lies on the border with northern Shan State, where the ethnic Brotherhood Alliance has taken control of around 25 towns, including the northern Shan capital of Lashio.
Last month, the alliance’s Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and allies, including Mandalay People’s Defense Force (PDF), seized Nawnghkio and Kyaukme, just over an hour’s drive from Pyin Oo Lwin. The defeats sparked an exodus from the garrison town as residents, including families of military personnel, fled.
TNLA forces then advanced along the Nawnghkio-Lawksawk road and overran two artillery battalion bases in Taung Hkam village, located an hour east of Pyin Oo Lwin.
Former captain Zin Yaw, who defected from the army, pointed out that resistance forces had to seize Taung Hkam before they march on the garrison town. Victory at Taung Hkam secured control of Nawnghkio township and prevented the junta from sending reinforcements from southern Shan State via the Nawnghkio-Lawksawk road.
“If revolutionary groups seize Pyin Oo Lwin, Mandalay city will fall easily,” he said.
However, to seize the Central Military Command in Mandalay, resistance forces must first capture several battalion headquarters, including a major stronghold in the north of the city, Zin Yaw said. Meanwhile, the junta is bracing for an assault by beefing up defenses around Mandalay Palace and elsewhere in the city.
Resistance groups attacked Central Command headquarters with a dozen 107mm rocket bombs early Tuesday morning. They claimed seven bombs hit their targets, killing several junta personnel.
Mandalay PDF and allied resistance groups have so far seized at least 35 junta bases, including an air defense battalion headquarters in the north of Mandalay city and positions in the eastern suburbs.
Meanwhile, several PDF groups are conducting a coordinated offensive dubbed the Myingyan District Special Operation in four townships south of Mandalay.
Zin Yaw cautioned, however, that to capture Mandalay city, PDF groups would need to leverage the decades of experience that ethnic armies have gained from fighting the Myanmar military.
