Since launching its offensive in November last year, the Arakan Army (AA) has seized 10 of the 17 townships in western Myanmar’s Rakhine State.
The ethnic armed group now controls Buthidaung, Rathedaung, Pauktaw, Ponnagyun, Kyauktaw, Mrauk-U, Minbya and Myebon townships in northern Rakhine, Ramree and Thandwe townships in southern Rakhine, plus Paletwa Township in neighboring Chin State.
It has also seized much of Maungdaw Township in northern Rakhine bordering Bangladesh.
The AA’s offensive can be divided into four phases.
In the first phase, lasting November to mid-January, it seized Paletwa Township after defeating a junta battalion headquarters spanning two military divisions.
In the second phase from Jan. 14 to Mar. 17, the AA carried out attacks on multiple fronts in Rathedaung, Minbya, Kyauktaw, Mrauk-U and Ponnagyun, seizing the 9th Military Operations Command and 10 battalion headquarters under its control, an artillery battalion, a police battalion, an advanced military training school, and two battalion headquarters under the 15th Military Operations Command and Western Command respectively.
The offensive is now in its third phase, with the AA fighting in Buthidaung and Maungdaw near the Bangladeshi border; in Ann, where the Western Command is based; and in Taungup, Thandwe and Gwa townships in southern Rakhine State. Buthidaung and Thandwe have fallen and are being cleared of pockets of junta troops.
Buthidaung and Maungdaw front
The AA began its Buthidaung offensive in March and took two months to seize complete control of the garrison town after capturing the 15th Military Operations Command and eight battalions under its command, a tactical command and three battalions under its command, an artillery battalion, combat-support units and two border guard police battalions. The township fell on May 18.
The AA captured much of neighboring Maungdaw after overrunning seven border guard police battalions and smaller bases in the township. AA troops have now entered Maungdaw town and are attacking its only border guard police battalion and junta troops.
The ethnic army also faces challenges in Buthidaung and Maungdaw, where years of racial and religious division have riven communities.
Ann front
Ann Township houses the junta’s Western Command, which is guarded by the Taw Hein Taung hilltop fortress. AA forces took the fortress on June 23 after two months of attacks inflicted heavy casualties on junta troops.
The ethnic army has since encircled Mae Taung base, another junta outpost guarding Western Command. Together with People’s Defense Force (PDF) groups under the civilian National Unity Government, it has seized control of the road linking Ann with Ngape Township in Minbu District, Magwe Region.
However, it has yet to attack the base, possibly because the assault is still being prepared or is delayed by heavy rain in the Arakan Mountains.
Southern Rakhine
Taungup houses the 5th Military Operations Command plus two light infantry battalions. Two battalions each are deployed in Thandwe and Gwa. Thandwe also has a naval base known as Maung Shwe Lay, named after the coastal village where it is situated.
Though fewer troops are deployed in southern Rakhine than in northern Rakhine, the regime can utilize its Navy along the coast from southern Taungup to Gwa.
After the AA seized Minbya, Kanhtaunggyi, Ma-ei and Ramree, and encircled Taungup, people expected its next target to be Taungup. Instead, it attacked Thandwe in mid-April.
The regime responded by deploying the entire 101st Light Infantry Division and some or all of the battalions under the 17th Military Operations Command to the Thandwe front. It also used its Navy and Air Force to defend against the AA’s offensive.
The fighting intensified in June and the first week of July. According to prisoners of war, the regime used all 10 battalions of the 101st Light Infantry Division in the battle for Thandwe. A fleet of five warships were also deployed in the Bay of Bengal to provide artillery support.
The AA said the Thandwe front had been the hardest-fought battle of its Rakhine campaign so far. It captured Thandwe Airport in July, the first airport lost to an ethnic armed group in Myanmar. It seized Maung Shwe Lay naval base earlier this month to achieve complete control of Thandwe, home to Myanmar’s internationally famous Ngapali Beach.
On Aug. 10, AA forces launched an offensive in Kyeintali, a town 64 kilometers south of Thandwe. Four days later, on Aug. 14, junta troops fled Kyeintali after suffering heavy casualties. Having already blown up bridges in a futile attempt to halt the AA’s advance from Thandwe, they are reportedly planning to do the same on the road to Gwa, a town 65 km south of Kyeintali. Regime force have now destroyed 22 bridges during their retreat in Rakhine.
Junta’s administrative staff and family members of junta troops have already fled Gwa and Taungup.
The fourth and final phase?
After seizing the towns of Maungdaw, Ann, Taungup and Gwa, the AA only needs to drive junta troops out of the capital Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung to take control of all of Rakhine State.
Sittwe is the junta’s seat of administration in the western state. The regime has heavily fortified the town, even reportedly planting naval mines in its coastal waters.
Myanmar’s powerful neighbor China has huge interests in Kyaukphyu, the starting point of Chinese pipelines pumping oil and gas to its landlocked Yunnan province. China is also building a special economic zone and a deep-sea port in Kyaukphyu as part of its global Belt and Road Initiative.
New front east of Arakan Mountains
Completing phase three of its offensive will enable the AA and PDF allies to open new fronts.
The third phase is critical for both the regime and resistance forces due to the strategic locations of the three towns – Ann, Taungup and Gwa.
Once Ann falls, the AA will have access to towns west of the Irrawaddy River in Magwe Region which are dotted with junta ordnance factories.
The fall of Taungup would give access to towns west of the Irrawaddy River in northwestern Bago. First stop could be Padaung, a crucial strategic town hugging the Irrawaddy’s western bank. From there, the AA could advance north to Thayet and Kamma and south to Kyangin and Myanaung on the Bago border.
Myaelatt Athan, a local media outlet monitoring the fighting in Sagaing, Magwe and Bago regions, reports there are 22 ordnance factories along the Pathein-Monywa, which runs south between Magwe and Bago regions.
Meanwhile the fall of Gwa would also give AA troops access south to Ayeyarwady Region and its stronghold of Ngathaingchaung, along with Chaungtha and Ngwe Hsaung beaches.
These are not just wild imaginings. The regime is now bracing for the AA’s next push, with warships in the Ngawun River near Pathein town, Ayeyarwady Region, already firing shots at random.
The fall of Ann, Taungup and Gwa would also help anti-regime forces fighting east of the Arakan Mountains and the Irrawaddy River. And the presence of these forces would hinder any regime counteroffensive in Rakhine by disrupting deployment of reinforcements from Magwe, Bago and Ayeyarwady regions.
Aye Chan Hsu is a political and military analyst.
