The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and allied People’s Defense Forces (PDF) captured the junta’s Saw Taw Kone hilltop base near Lay Kay Kaw town in Myawaddy Township, Karen State on October 17.
The captured base is only 16 kilometers Myawaddy town, a trade hub on the Thai border.
Lay Kay Kaw, a town built in 2015 to mark peace negotiations between the then government and the Karen National Union (KNU), the oldest ethnic armed organization in Myanmar, was also captured. The KNLA is one of the two armed wings of the KNU.
The victory over Swe Taw Kone means it is now easier for anti-regime groups to transport troops and supplies. But for the regime, Myawaddy has become more vulnerable while its other camps along the border are cut off.
Anti-regime groups were close to capturing Myawaddy town in April. However, the launch of Operation Aung Zeya by the military regime compelled them to change their tactics and defend themselves in the Dawna Range.
The KNLA and allies laid siege to Swe Taw Kone, a tactical command base overseen by a colonel from the 44th Light Infantry Division, in March. An artillery battery, including two 120 mm mortars, was attached to the base where around 120 troops were deployed.
The base fell on October 17 after nearly seven months of fighting.
Alongside the KNLA, PDF columns, and anti-regime groups. including five drone units, took part in the fighting.
Four junta soldiers were reportedly killed in the fighting. Following mediation by Karenni National Army/ Karen State Border Guard Force (BGF), junta troops abandoned their base and withdrew to Myawaddy where the 44th Light Infantry Division commander is based.
After the fall of Swe Taw Kone, the regime only had six camps controlled by the South Eastern Command along the Moei River on the Thai-Myanmar border, in addition to the frontline base in Myawaddy town, a few columns commanded by the 44th Light Infantry Division commander, and the Infantry Battalion 275 stationed in Myawaddy town.
KNLA forces briefly captured the headquarters of Infantry Battalion 275 in Myawaddy in April before the regime retook the battalion with the help of its allied Karen State BGF.
Residents say the regime has been airdropping reinforcements and food supplies to Myawaddy town.
Hundreds of junta troops sent as reinforcements to Myawaddy as part of Operation Aung Zeya have been stuck near Taw Naw Waterfall in the Dawna Range since late April and are still unable to break the defense line of the KNLA and allies.
Supported by the Thai government and BGF, the regime will try to retain its control of Myawaddy town. However, it appears that the KNLA and allies are not targeting Myawaddy town this time. They apparently plan to take down junta positions along the border one by one.
The KNLA and allies have seized three tactical command bases, including Swe Taw Kone, Kyaik Don and Thingan Nyi Naung in the territory of KNU Brigade 6. They have been attacking the fourth tactical command base, Anan Kwin in Kyarinseikkyi Township, in Karen State.
Their next target might be Waw Lay camp on the Thai-Myanmar border. The tactical command base is the innermost base among the junta’s bases along the border. If they can capture Waw Lay, it will be easier for them to seize other camps.
Another target might be the permanent tactical command headquarters in Kyarinseikkyi Township under the command of the South Eastern Command. Kyarinseikkyi borders Mon State’s Mudon. However, as the bridge spanning across the Ataran River linking Kyarinseikkyi and Mudon has collapsed, the regime will not be able to send reinforcements from its South Eastern Command in Mon State’s capital, Mawlamyine, should the base in Kyarinseikkyi come under attack.
The KNLA attacked Infantry Battalion 284 headquarters in Kyarinseikkyi Township in January, killing the battalion commander. In Papun, controlled by the KNU Brigade 5, the KNLA has been fighting the local tactical command base.
These indicate a shift in the military situation in southern Myanmar despite the fact that the regime still controls much of the territory there.
Military observers are frustrated with the developments in southern Myanmar, especially when they compare it with Operation 1027 in northern Myanmar.
Though junta-aligned BGF and militia groups are present in both areas, things are far more complex in southern Myanmar. Armed groups that share interests with the regime remain in southern Myanmar whereas such groups have been crushed in the north.
In areas controlled by KNU Brigades 5, 6 and 7, armed groups that stick to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement and those that oppose the regime live side by side. BGFs and militia groups that have business ties to the regime remain in the area. Thailand also has interests due to its border trade with Myanmar.
There are also BGFs and militia groups with business ties to the regime in northern Myanmar, but they act as separate entities and their ties with the regime are not that deep.
Therefore, the KNU/KNLA and PDFs are conducting military operations in their own way in southern Myanmar. Though they can’t make breakthroughs like the anti-regime groups in northern Myanmar did collectively, they have been making steady progress.
For example, junta troops have been driven out of northern Kyarinseikkyi in the territory controlled by KNU Brigade 6. In Payathonzu, the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army runs the administration. Only one junta position—Anan Kwin tactical command base—is left between Payathonzu and Thanbyuzayat.
According to sources on the ground, some junta soldiers have surrendered at Anan Kwin base, and the KNLA is likely to capture it soon.
Meanwhile, Operation Aung Zeya, the so-called national-level military operation, has proven to be a paper tiger, with junta troops still stuck in the Dawna Range. Moreover, there are only a few junta positions left on the Thai-Myanmar border near Myawaddy and anti-regime forces have cut them off.
Taking a closer look, a gradual shift can be noticed in southern Myanmar.
(Swe Taw is a Myanmar military defector.)
