When Myanmar’s previous military regime forced ethnic armed organizations that had signed a ceasefire to transform into Border Guard Forces under the Army-drafted 2008 Constitution, some groups objected.
The regime duly launched attacks on the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) and Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) after they opposed its proposal.
However, it shied away from attacking two holdouts – the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and its territorial neighbor, the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA).
The regime would have had to attack both groups simultaneously, risking the spread of fighting to southern and northern Shan State west of the Salween River. Victory wasn’t guaranteed even if it deployed all 10 of its divisions. Moreover, the high military expenditure could have wrecked the economy.
Then-junta chief Than Shwe and his deputy Maung Aye were preparing for a power transfer and decided against attacking the UWSA. Than Shwe’s successor, Min Aung Hlaing, has followed suit.
Thein Sein’s quasi-civilian government also hit snags in peace negotiations with the UWSA. Tensions that built up in 2009-2010 were eased when a Union-level preliminary ceasefire was signed on December 25, 2011. The UWSA signed the truce but thought it unnecessary, having already signed a ceasefire with the previous regime in 1989.
In 2015, President Thein Sein visited Shan State’s Kengtung to urge UWSA and NDAA leaders to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, but to no avail.
The UWSA sent representatives to the first Union Peace Conference in 2016, but the delegation walked out of the talks complaining it had been relegated to an “observer” role instead of full participant.
The UWSA formed the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) in 2017 as it sought an alternative to the NCA. The UWSA attended the second and third sessions of the Union Peace Conference in 2018 and 2019 due to China’s intervention, but only as an observer. After UWSA vice chair Bao Youyi fell ill while attending the 2018 conference, military chief Min Aung Hlaing visited him in hospital and personally served him a bowl of bird’s nest soup.
The UWSA invited government and military leaders to its 30th anniversary celebrations in 2019, but neither government leaders nor Min Aung Hlaing attended. The UWSA marked the event with a grand-scale military parade that drew ire from the Myanmar military. Min Aun Hlaing responded by scoffing that UWSA’s weaponry did not impress him.
In 2022, the UWSA engaged in talks with Min Aung Hlaing’s regime along with the SSPP and the NDAA. The regime agreed in principle to grant the UWSA’s demand of autonomous statehood.
Crossing the Salween River for the first time
Around 3,000 UWSA troops along with 100 vehicles and heavy weapons crossed the Salween River to southern Shan State in May 2021.
Sources confirmed that the UWSA was helping its ally, the SSPP, to fight its rival, the Restoration Council of Shan State. The fighting ended in March, but UWSA troops were still deployed alongside SSPP troops on Mount Mo Shan in April this year.
Crossing for the second time
Around 300 UWSA troops crossed the Salween River on April 4, 2023 and deployed near Tangyan with SSPP troops.
The UWSA reportedly provided military training, supplies and healthcare for the anti-regime ethnic Brotherhood Alliance during Operation 1027. The alliance handed two towns they had seized from the regime during the operation – Hopang and Panlong east of the Salween River – to the UWSA.
The transfer of the two towns expanded the Wa Self-Administered Division east of the Salween River on the border with China.
Another alliance member, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), has also reportedly handed over Mong Kyet, Karmein and Teintan west of the Salween River to the UWSA.
The military raised no official objections either time UWSA troops crossed west of the Salween. On the first occasion, the regime handed the SSPP an ultimatum to withdraw by the end of March 2022. But bolstered by UWSA troops, the SSPP refused.
The regime stayed silent when the UWSA crossed for the second time as it was struggling amid a string of heavy military defeats.
Third crossing
Around 100 vehicles of UWSA troops crossed the river to southern Shan State on June 5 this year. The reinforcements swelled the existing UWSA force to around 5,000.
But the regime continued to maintain silence over the large troop deployments.
And this was despite junta supporters accusing UWSA soldiers of switching uniforms to fight alongside the TNLA and MNDAA in the second phase of Operation 1027, which began on June 25. There is no evidence for this switch, however.
On July 9, the regime offered to hand territory over to the UWSA in exchange for a guarantee to protect Tangyan southeast of northern Shan State’s capital, Lashio.
The regime has lost Nawnghkio town and Nampawng village in Lashio Township since Operation 1027 restarted on June 25. With Brotherhood Alliance Forces laying siege to Kyaukme and attacking Lashio, the regime is at risk of losing Tangyan and Mongyai soon. The regime apparently calculates that ceding territory to the UWSA is preferable to losing both towns to the Brotherhood Alliance.
At the invitation of the Northeastern Command, UWSA troops entered Tangyan, west of the Salween River, on July 10. The UWSA, now headed by a new generation of leaders, then held talks with junta officials to confirm the territory handover.
The area granted to the UWSA stretches from Mong Yaw, 54 kilometers northeast of Lashio, south to UWSA-controlled Narwee east of the Salween, and on to Hoyaywarma village in Mongyai Township, southeast of Lashio.
Hoyaywarma is located at the junction of Tangyan and Mongyai townships, and is just 30 km from Nampawng village seized by the MNDAA. Mongyai is around 10 km southeast of Hoyaywarma.
Mankat village in Lashio Township is 25 km east of Hoyaywarma, and Tangyan is 40 km from Hoyaywarma.
UWSA troops are now deployed in Hoyaywarma.
The regime wants to deter the Brotherhood Alliance from advancing on Mongyai and Mankat, a gateway to Lashio, and Tangyan by granting northern Tangyan to the UWSA.
The regime has also reportedly handed over Mongyai to the SSPP.
The UWSA is seeking to expand Wa territory east of the Salween River as far as Tar Kaw Ark, Mankan, Lwel Panglong and Matman, aka Mawpha. Northeastern Command has yet to agree to the UWSA’s expansion demand. Matman is overseen by the Myanmar military’s Triangle Region Command and has not been discussed by the two sides.
Though Tar Kaw Ark, Mankan and Lwel Panlong are still under regime control, the UWSA can now freely travel from Wein Kaung to Hoyaywarma via Manmanhseng, Mankan and Taw Kaw Ark. As such, the UWSA is expected to seize Tar Kaw Ark, Mankan and Lwel Panlong soon. Tangyan and Mawpha are also expected to fall.
The UWSA has historically focused on territory east of the Salween River, only crossing west to create a buffer zone. It has now acquired areas west of the river without having fired a single shot after the seriously depleted regime offered them up for free. With the UWSA obtaining areas on both sides, it is fair to say the ethnic army now controls large sections of the Salween River.
Lesson to other ethnic armed groups
It has been 35 years since ethnic Wa troops mutinied against their leaders in the Communist Party of Burma in 1989, giving birth to the UWSA. The UWSA has maintained de facto control over Wa state and grown into the most powerful ethnic army in Myanmar. A younger generation has assumed leadership of the UWSA over the past year.
Under these circumstances, the UWSA is expanding its territory and influence without firing a single shot. Time will tell how far it can go.
The UWSA’s success is a lesson to other revolutionary organizations that they must be strong in the face of regime aggression. The UWSA rejected the junta’s Border Guard ultimatum without retaliation from junta forces. Large numbers of UWSA troops have been active west of the Salween River since 2021, but the regime dares not utter a word.
The regime was also silent when UWSA supported Operation 1027 and took over administrative control of Hopang and Panlong.
It did not object when UWSA troops again ventured west of Salween River. Instead, it even granted them territory.
The powerful UWSA is testament to the fact that Myanmar civilians including ethnic minorities must be strong if they want to secure their rights. While the regime torments unarmed civilians as it pleases, it cowers in the face of military strength. Myanmar’s military leaders once confessed “We are afraid of China.” It would come as no surprise if they now admitted, “We are afraid of the Wa too.”
Ko Oo is an ethnic affairs analyst.
