Walking back his vow to hold a nationwide election, junta boss Min Aung Hlaing said during the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) meeting on Wednesday that elections would be held first in areas where it is safe to do so while his regime tries to bring “stability and security” to conflict zones.
The junta boss added that his troops would bring “peace and stability” to Lashio, Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, Hsipaw and Mogoke—areas where his troops have recently suffered humiliating defeats, including the losses of several major bases and towns, to ethnic armies and their allies.
He insisted that after seizing power on Feb. 1, 2021, his regime had planned to hold a nationwide election when the initial two-year state of emergency expired. Hostilities hindered the regime’s plan to return to democracy while forcing an extension of the state of emergency, he said.
During the civil war in the early 1950s, a general election was held over seven months between June 1951 and April 1952 due to armed conflicts.
Nationwide general elections were held in 1990, 2010, 2015 and 2020. But after losing vast swathes of territory in northern Shan State and Rakhine State and with unrest ongoing in many parts of the country, the regime has been left with no option but to hold the election in stages.
At an NDSC meeting in January 2023, Min Aung Hlaing said his regime had complete control over only 198 of 330 townships in the country, and that it needed to improve security in 132 townships.
That was before the Brotherhood Alliance of three ethnic armed organizations launched its large-scale offensive, Operation 1027, which has seen the regime lose dozens of towns in northern Shan State. One of the three alliance members, the Arakan Army, has seized more than half of Rakhine State in western Myanmar.
The junta’s loss of territory is not limited to Shan and Rakhine, however. It has also ceded territory in other ethnic states including Kachin. Recently, it lost two towns in Mandalay Region, home to the second-largest city in Myanmar.
Even as the regime was holding the NDSC meeting on Wednesday to extend the state of emergency for a sixth time, allied anti-regime groups continued their attacks on junta positions in northern Shan State, seizing almost total control of Lashio, where the regime’s Northeastern Command is based.
Nearly 70 towns have fallen into the hands of anti-regime groups since the beginning of Operation 1027 in October last year, which would reduce the 198 townships under junta control claimed by the junta chief to around 130. Furthermore, the junta’s administrative mechanism is not fully functional in some of the areas it claims to control.
Observers doubt the regime has the capacity even to conduct the population census needed to compile voter lists, let alone a nationwide poll.
Min Aung Hlaing earlier said a poll would be held next year after a census scheduled for October. Observers say polls are highly unlikely except in Naypyitaw, Yangon and Mandalay, and in large towns in other regions and states.
At the NDSC meeting on Wednesday, Min Aung Hlaing said his regime would never give up on its objective of holding an election.
After being extended by six more months on Wednesday, emergency rule is now due to expire at the end of January 2025. If Min Aung Hlaing returns power to the NDSC then, it is constitutionally required to organize polls within six months.
