A flurry of engagements between the Myanmar junta and China since late last month has apparently prompted India to increase its interactions with the regime in a bid to counterbalance Beijing’s influence on their troubled neighbor.
Lying between India and China, Myanmar is geographically and strategically important to both countries, offering Beijing access to the Bay of Bengal while playing a significant role in New Delhi’s plans for regional connectivity with South, Southeast and East Asia.
Indian Ambassador to Myanmar Abhay Thakur has been busy this week, meeting junta officials and offering assistance as financial and military crises escalate in the country.
On Tuesday, Thakur visited junta No. 3 Maung Maung Aye to discuss the promotion of ties between the two armed forces, cooperation on defense and training, and exchange of trainees, junta media said. The meeting suggests that India, one of the junta’s largest arms suppliers along with Russia and China, is determined to continue arming the regime.
On the same day, the Indian envoy also held talks with the junta’s national security advisor, former Navy chief Moe Aung, in their second meeting since May. The two reportedly discussed border stability and Indian assistance to development projects in Myanmar.
The envoy also visited junta Foreign Minister Than Swe, Central Bank of Myanmar Governor Than Than Swe and Planning and Finance Minister Win Shein this week.
Matters regarding cooperation in the banking and finance sector, loans and technical assistance from India, direct rupee/kyat payments to promote bilateral trade, and cross-border payments via cards and mobile apps were discussed at those meetings, junta media reported.
The Indian ambassador’s visits to junta officials came after former President Thein Sein and junta second-in-command Soe Win visited China, the regime declared Chinese New Year a national holiday in Myanmar, and China’s Communist Party invited four political parties—including the military’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party and the People’s Party led by 88-generation democracy activist Ko Ko Gyi—to China for a goodwill visit. It also followed renewed clashes between the regime and ethnic armed organizations near the Chinese border in northern Myanmar.
India recently reaffirmed its continued cooperation with the regime to implement a massive transport and development project in Myanmar’s westernmost state, Rakhine. The project is currently stalled due to intense fighting between the regime and Arakan Army troops.
Foreign Minister Than Swe also held talks with the Indian foreign minister on the construction of a Myanmar-India-Thai highway when he attended the 2nd BIMSTEC Foreign Ministers’ Retreat in New Delhi last week.
The trilateral highway will allow India to expand trade with Southeast Asia through Myanmar and Thailand.
Frequent visits by senior figures from the Indian military over the past year indicate increased military-to-military cooperation between the world’s largest democracy and one of the world’s most brutal dictatorships. India continues to equip the junta’s air force and navy as the regime’s war of terror against the people of Myanmar expands.
A local political observer said India’s attempts to boost engagement with the regime were clearly inspired by rivalry with China. “It seems like [New Delhi thinks] Myanmar shouldn’t be close only to Beijing, but to India as well,” he said.
But he doubted India would make much progress, as New Delhi lacks the leverage enjoyed by Beijing, including its influence on some of the major ethnic armed organizations that have been waging war against the regime, among other factors.
