The ethnic Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) on Tuesday declared a unilateral ceasefire with the junta while pledging to join China-brokered peace efforts, as Beijing continues to detain its chief.
Chinese authorities placed MNDAA leader Peng Daren under house arrest in Kunming after his meeting there with China’s special envoy to Myanmar in late October. Beijing claims the MNDAA chief is in China for medical care.
Peng Daren’s arrest followed China’s closure of border trade crossings to MNDAA territory in northern Shan State, a move aimed at pressuring the ethnic army to halt its months-long offensive against Myanmar’s military regime.
The MNDAA declared an immediate ceasefire on Tuesday, stating it would seek resolution of conflicts – including the governance of Lashio, the northern Shan State capital – under Chinese government arbitration.
The MNDAA and allies seized Lashio and its Northeastern Military Command Headquarters in August after a month of attacks. Unable to reclaim it by force, the regime is reportedly hoping that Beijing’s pressure will force the ethnic army to relinquish the northern Shan capital.
However, a military analyst monitoring the fighting in northern Shan State told The Irrawaddy that the MNDAA cannot afford to hand Lashio back to the regime.
“If the MNDAA returns it, their defensive position will collapse. Such a move would also threaten towns around Lashio that were recently liberated by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army [TNLA], an ethnic ally of the MNDAA,” the analyst said.
The MNDAA on Tuesday also demanded that the regime halt its ongoing airstrikes and offensives nationwide.
It pledged to send a high-level delegation for China-brokered peace talks with the regime.
However, it retained the right to military self-defense during political dialogue and negotiation.
The military analyst noted that the regime is unlikely to halt attacks in northern Shan and elsewhere that are taking a heavy toll on civilians.
“If the regime abandons Lashio and other resistance-controlled territory, it would be a humiliating setback,” he said.
The MNDAA, TNLA and Arkan Army (AA) form the Brotherhood Alliance that launched Operation 1027 in October last year, seizing almost all of northern Shan State, including 25 towns and townships as well as vital trade routes with China.
Unable to send ground troops to reclaim the lost territory, the regime has launched near daily airstrikes on towns liberated by the Brotherhood Alliance.
Under pressure from China, the MNDAA issued a similar statement in September, pledging not to attack Mandalay city and the southern Shan State capital of Taunggyi and committing not to collaborate with the civilian National Unity Government (NUG) or any international organization opposed to China.
