China is preparing to welcome Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in the near future, a move that could be seen not only as a major policy shift on the part of Beijing toward the regime, but also as giving some much-desired legitimacy to the junta, which is reeling from a nationwide armed resistance movement.
The trip would likely take place this month and preparations for the visit are now under way, according to sources familiar with the matter.
It is possible that Chinese Premier Li Qiang would receive Min Aung Hlaing, the sources said, and it is believed the two sides will discuss the regime’s forthcoming election, which is scheduled to be held in 2025, among other things.
It would be Min Aung Hlaing’s first trip to China since his 2021 coup, which toppled Myanmar’s democratically elected government and has devastated the country socially, politically and economically.
The Myanmar junta has been mostly shunned internationally for the takeover and its bloody responses to its opponents. But Beijing has been one of its major supporters and arms suppliers, along with Russia.
Notably, the expected trip comes after Chinse Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Naypyitaw in mid-August, when he told Min Aung Hlaing that China opposed any acts that incite civil war or internal strife in Myanmar. Min Aung Hlaing begged him to help stop ethnic armed groups’ offensives against his regime and promised to protect Chinese projects and their employees in Myanmar.
Major policy shift
Despite its support for the regime, Beijing has so far not invited Min Aung Hlaing to visit.
Its apparent decision to welcome him now could be seen not only as a major policy shift from China towards the regime, but also as giving much-needed legitimacy to the junta, analysts said.
The trip comes at a time when the regime is struggling to quell an armed resistance across the country. Most of the major trade routes with China, as well as the northern Shan State capital Lashio, and areas where Chinese investments related to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative are located, have fallen under the control of ethnic armed groups and their allied resistance forces.
More importantly, the trip would augment Beijing’s support for the regime, which it sees as “the most important political force in Myanmar’s political structure”, in the words of its special envoy for Myanmar, Deng Xijun. China is worried about the West’s connections with Myanmar opposition groups including the National Unity Government (NUG) and its armed forces and ethnic armed groups.
According to the leaked minutes of a meeting between Deng and the leaders of Myanmar’s strongest ethnic army, the United Wa State Army, on Aug. 27, the envoy said China believes in and supports the Myanmar military and will not allow Myanmar to continue to be chaotic and disintegrate.
The envoy said Wang’s visit to Myanmar fully demonstrated China’s recognition of the Myanmar military’s role in safeguarding national sovereignty and its strong support for the Myanmar military in stabilizing and controlling the situation. The envoy stressed that China didn’t accept the seizure of Lashio by the Kokang region’s Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). Beijing also maintains ties with ethnic armed groups, including the MNDAA and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), who have been fighting the junta in northern Shan States. Beijing has put pressure on them to stop fighting since the fall of Lashio.
Deng told the Wa leaders: “The Myanmar military is the founder of the Myanmar state and the most important political force in Myanmar’s political structure. Whether it’s the NUG or Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD [National League for Democracy], they cannot replace the Myanmar military’s position in Myanmar’s political arena.”
He added the MNDAA’s occupation of Lashio has seriously damaged the overall situation in Myanmar, China-Myanmar relations, and especially the Belt and Road Initiative, saying it was “providing an opportunity for the US and the West to interfere and create chaos.”
“The Kokang [MNDAA] is increasingly becoming a pawn of the US and the West, acting as a vanguard to overthrow the Myanmar military government. This has become a problem that disrupts northern Myanmar and the whole of Myanmar,” he said.
China has punished the MNDAA by cutting off supplies of fuel and medicine. Deng said at the meeting that “the Peng family [referring to the leader of the MNDAA] cannot escape responsibility.” At the meeting Beijing also warned Wa leaders not to support the MNDAA.
“As for the ethnic armed organizations in northern Myanmar that refuse to heed China’s advice and insist on fighting and causing chaos, China will definitely take action,” Deng said at the meeting.
Since the meeting between Wang and Min Aung Hlaing, the junta has repeatedly bombed Lashio, causing civilian deaths and destruction in residential areas. China has been silent on the bombing campaign.
The TNLA has continued to attack regime bases in northern Shan State, however, and seized another strategic township, Hsipaw, on Sunday.
