The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) will reportedly retreat from the northern Shan State capital, Lashio, this month under Chinese pressure.
The decision purportedly came after Beijing said it would again close all borders to MNDAA-held areas and the junta threatened airstrikes, a Lashio resident close to the MNDAA administration told The Irrawaddy on Friday.
Beijing has upped pressure since Chinese-brokered talks about Lashio between the armed group and regime failed last month.
Sources estimate the MNDAA will retreat from 12 Lashio wards but retain villages surrounding the city.
“The MNDAA is facing a lot of Chinese pressure as its bank accounts and many family members are in China. A border blockage could make a huge impact on our side,” the Lashio source said.
The source said the MNDAA had allowed regime immigration, customs, health and education departments to return to the city while the armed group’s military chief, police department and public relations offices remained in Lashio.
“Retreating would harm the people. Residents suffered during the seizure of the city and they don’t want the MNDAA to retreat. Other revolutionary groups lost fighters taking the city. The MNDAA shouldn’t retreat. It would all have been a waste,” said the Lashio source.
Several resistance groups, including People’s Defense Forces loyal to the civilian National Unity Government, helped seize Lashio in early August last year after a month of fighting.
The regime repeatedly bombed the city, causing civilian casualties and destroying many civilian buildings. Beijing, meanwhile, pressured the MNDDA to retreat from Lashio.
The source said other resistance allies would be angered by any MNDAA retreat.
“Other resistance groups may take unpredictable action. People need to be prepared for everything,” the source warned.
A military analyst close to the MNDAA told The Irrawaddy that Beijing was not interested in more peace talks and told the armed group to withdraw from Lashio by April 22.
The analyst said the situation in northern Shan State would become complicated again after the MNDAA’s retreat.
The MNDAA is a member of the Brotherhood Alliance that launched the successful anti-regime Operation 1027 across northern Shan State in October 2023 alongside several resistance groups.
The Brotherhood Alliance seized most of northern Shan State, Lashio and important trade routes with China.
Fellow alliance member, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, has been fighting the regime at Taunghkam in Nawnghkio Township for months.
The third member, the Arakan Army, has seized 14 out of 17 Rakhine State townships and Paletwa Township in neighboring Chin State in western Myanmar, where China has less direct influence.
