More than a week after China brokered a ceasefire agreement between the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the military junta, the MNDAA’s leader pledged to uphold China’s policy of “promoting peace and dialogue” in Myanmar, adding that the ethnic armed group would strive to achieve peace in the area it controls.
MNDAA commander Peng Daxun (aka Peng Deren) said in his Chinese New Year’s message on Tuesday that the MNDAA would “safeguard the political rights” as well as the “high degree of autonomy” that the ethnic armed group had secured for its territory, while upholding China’s policy on Myanmar.
The MNDAA, also known as the Kokang group, is a member of the anti-regime Brotherhood Alliance that also includes the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army. The alliance has close ties to China, the regime’s major ally. Beijing has been pressuring the country’s anti-regime ethnic armed groups to strike a peace deal with the junta in a bid to protect Chinese strategic interests in Myanmar, particularly projects related to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The MNDAA and its allies inflicted a series of military defeats on the junta in late 2023 and early 2024, recapturing the Kokang region in northern Shan State near the Chinese border. It now fully controls the region.
But its seizure of northern Shan State’s capital Lashio in August infuriated China. Looking to push the MNDAA into a ceasefire with the junta and to withdraw from Lashio, Beijing took a series of steps to put pressure on the MNDAA, including placing Peng under house arrest in China.
Following Beijing-brokered talks between the junta and the MNDAA in mid-January, China said both sides had agreed to the ceasefire. Neither the regime nor the MNDAA have publicly discussed details of the deal, however, so it’s not clear whether the Kokang army has agreed to withdraw from Lashio.
In a New Year’s message—his first public comment since leaving house arrest—Peng said: “We will uphold China’s favorable policy of ‘encouraging peace and promoting dialogue’ for Myanmar, wholeheartedly striving to achieve peace in the Special Zone”, referring to the area under the MNDAA’s control.
Peng also said the MNDAA would continue to strengthen unity with allied ethnic organizations, “respecting, understanding, and supporting their political aspirations in line with their own circumstances.”
The Kokang leader also said his region will continue to combat illegal industries, including cyber fraud and drug trafficking, while fostering sustainable development. Plans include leveraging opportunities under China’s BRI to attract major projects, expand trade and accelerate development.
Jason Tower of the United States Institute of Peace, a US conflict-resolution institution, said that in stark contrast with his 2024 New Year’s address, the MNDAA leader’s recent message avoided mention of the Myanmar military or of any MNDAA successes or plans with regard to offensive activities or eradicating the Myanmar army.
“Instead, the focus was on economic development and the governance tasks ahead,” he said.
He pointed out that Peng emphasized the importance of the ceasefire mediated by the Chinese, and the commitment of the MNDAA to ensuring the stability of the China-Myanmar border area. The Kokang leader also praised China’s policy towards Myanmar, notably emphasizing China’s contributions to the country “maintaining its sovereignty and territorial integrity” but also to Kokang autonomy.
“These comments signal that pressure from China and the UWSA [United Wa State Army] on the MNDAA have pushed it to increasingly adopt a posture more similar to that of the UWSA and to continue publicly distancing itself from revolutionary forces,” he said.
The UWSA is the largest ethnic armed group in Myanmar and has close ties to China. It has announced it won’t take sides in Myanmar’s ongoing war between the junta and anti-regime ethnic armed organizations and resistance groups. Following the fall of Lashio, China pushed the UWSA to put pressure on the MNDAA to enter a ceasefire.
