Though Yangon has remained relatively untouched by major earthquakes for decades, recent tremors following the devastating March 28 quake have unsettled residents and underscored a growing seismic threat to the city of over 5 million.
Tremors rippled through Yangon at 10 pm on May 6, prompting locals to flee its jumble of mid-rise buildings and gather anxiously in the streets. Memories of the quake that tore through central Myanmar just five weeks earlier were still fresh in their minds.
“When the earthquake hit Mandalay, the first tremor was mild but the second one was much stronger. I’m still too afraid to go back upstairs,” said a woman from Latha Township that night. Residents of neighboring Kyauktada, Latha, Lanmadaw, Tamwe, Dawbon, and Sanchaung townships shared the same concern, spending hours outside fearing aftershocks.
The May 6 earthquake measured 3.4 in magnitude and was centered just northeast of Yangon city in Hlegu Township, according to the regime’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology.
Though relatively weak, its shallow depth caused buildings across the region to sway noticeably.
While Yangon is not situated directly on the Sagaing Fault – the seismic hotspot that triggered the quake on March 28 – the fault’s southern extension runs close to the city and into the Gulf of Martaban. A major earthquake in this section could spell disaster for the country’s most populous city, home to numerous aging mid-rise buildings of 6-8 stories.
Yangon’s deadliest earthquake, the 7.3-magnitude disaster of May 1930, was caused by a rupture along the Sagaing Fault in neighboring Bago. That fault zone has remained largely inactive ever since, geologist Dr. Maung Thein wrote in his book “Myanmar and Earthquake,” fueling concerns that mounting seismic stress could soon trigger another massive quake.
Dr. Myo Thant, a geologist at the Myanmar Institute of Earth and Planetary Sciences who served as vice chair of the ousted National League for Democracy (NLD) government’s Earthquake Committee, told The Irrawaddy: “Based on geological formations, patterns of previous earthquakes and GPS tracking, we estimate that a major earthquake of 7 magnitude-plus hits the region approximately every 100 to 110 years. The last major quake occurred 95 years ago in 1930, so the likelihood of another significant quake is strong and will only increase in the coming years.”
During the 1930 quake, only three buildings collapsed in Yangon, resulting in about 50 deaths. However, experts caution that today’s seismic risk is far greater given the city’s dense population, proliferation of aging and poorly built mid-rise buildings, plus flyovers and other major infrastructure.
Dr. Myo Thant warned that a big quake in today’s Yangon would trigger a far greater death toll than the 1930 disaster.
For years, experts have urged Yangon authorities to conduct a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), develop seismic microzoning maps, implement quake-resistant building codes, and launch public preparedness campaigns.
The deadly Thabeikkyin and Tarlay earthquakes during Thein Sein’s administration prompted collaboration among seismologists, geologists, civil society organizations, and government departments to strengthen quake preparedness efforts. These initiatives gained momentum under the civilian NLD government.
International organizations including the UNDP and Japan’s JICA worked alongside Myanmar ministries and institutions to conduct earthquake drills, structural integrity assessments for schools and universities, and geological studies along the Sagaing Fault. Scientists also launched a project to study the two major fault lines beneath Yangon using drones.
“We even went to housing expos to educate people about earthquakes. We continued quake-risk surveys even during COVID, but all this work was halted due to the 2021 coup,” said Dr. Myo Thant from the NLD’s Earthquake Committee.
Experts recommend that Yangon’s mid-rise buildings be inspected and modified if needed, warning of potentially devastating quake impacts on the closely packed population and aging infrastructure. Dr. Myo Thant also urged regular emergency drills at schools, government offices and condominiums.
Yangon’s only major quake within living memory was recorded in 1970, when General Ne Win ruled the country with an iron fist. The tremor sparked widespread panic as people rushed out of their homes, schools, and offices. However, it was caused by a fault zone near Yangon rather than the Sagaing Fault.
Although the 1970 quake didn’t result in fatalities, over 60 buildings suffered structural damage, including colonial-era landmarks such as the Secretariat, the Post Office, the Presidential Residence, and a state-owned pharmaceutical factory. Seismologists at the time warned of the potential for a powerful quake centered on Bago, just 70 kilometers northeast of Yangon.
Geologists believe the March 28 earthquake that ravaged Sagaing, Mandalay and Naypyitaw stopped near Phyu Township. They warn this could signal increasing pressure along the southern extension of the Sagaing Fault, which runs through Bago, Phyu, Kayan and Thongwga – areas dangerously close to Yangon.
The March 28 disaster, which killed nearly 3,800 people, has struck fear into the hearts of Yangon city dwellers.
“Whenever I go downstairs to shop or pick up deliveries, I can’t help worrying about my family upstairs. What if an earthquake happens while I’m outside? My children could be trapped,” said a resident of mid-rise building in Latha Township.
Structural integrity has also become a concern, fueled by lax construction regulations and the absence of quake-resistant features in Yangon buildings. Widespread use of water from underground tanks and pipes also raises the risk of catastrophic collapses during strong tremors.
A resident of Kyauktada Township in downtown Yangon voiced concerns about unregulated construction practices: “Our building is old, making it even more vulnerable. One occupant bought both apartments on the ground and removed the wall between them. This will have weakened the structure significantly.”
Recognizing the city’s vulnerabilities, geologist Dr. Thein urges that all future mid-rise constructions be built to withstand at least a magnitude-7 earthquake. He points out that Yangon areas such as downtown, Botahtaung, Ahlone, Sanchaung, Kamayut, western Hlaing and Dagon Seikkan townships are built on soft soil, increasing the risk of quake disasters.
The commercial capital is no longer a sparsely populated city dominated by low-rise buildings. Myanmar’s biggest city now bristles with mid- and high-rise constructions, many of them poorly built and maintained. The devastation and death toll wrought on Mandalay by the March 28 earthquake would be amplified should a similar seismic event hit Yangon, experts warn.
Moreover, Myanmar’s vulnerability to quake disasters has increased dramatically since the 2021 coup, with over 3.5 million people displaced amid a junta military campaign marked by frequent and deadly attacks on civilians.
Under a regime that rules only by brute force, Yangon residents must rely on themselves for protection from earthquakes, a downtown resident commented.
