Concerns are growing that war will resume in key towns in northern Shan State as tensions on the ground mount between the junta’s military and ethnic armed groups.
Residents said they have observed that the junta is sending military supplies and reinforcements to Lashio, Kyaukme and Mongmit townships and believe this is in preparation for a resumption of fighting with the Brotherhood Alliance, a group of three ethnic armed organizations.
Brotherhood Alliance forces are also taking up positions around Lashio, where the junta’s Northeastern Command and many other battalion headquarters are based, according to the residents.
The Brotherhood Alliance’s members—the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)—launched Operation 1027 against the junta’s military in northern Shan State on Oct. 27, 2023.
The military offensive lasted for three months, until the Haigen ceasefire was brokered by China in Kunming in January.
At least 18 towns fell under the control of the Brotherhood Alliance during Operation 1027.
“The people are now very worried as the TNLA troops are being stationed closer to the town. And some [residents] are already collecting food and medicine while some are seeking ways to evacuate from the town in the case of an emergency,” said a Lashio resident.
An ethnic Shan social activist said the junta is building up its military strength in towns in northern Shan, airlifting in troops from different parts of the country every day.
However, he said if fighting resumes it would be likely to start in towns such as Mongmit and Kyaukme, where he believed the junta’s military was more vulnerable than in Lashio.
Since the Haigen agreement was brokered in mid-January, the TNLA, which now controls seven towns in the area, has often claimed that the junta’s military forces are violating the ceasefire agreement by using warplanes to drop bombs, and by conducting frequent shelling.
Lway Yay Oo, a spokesperson for the TNLA, said the junta is sending reinforcements and military supplies including weapons, ammunition and drones to bases in Kyaukme, Hsipaw, Mongmit and Lashio in northern Shan, as well as to Mogoke Township in Mandalay Region.
“I can’t say for sure whether the war will resume in northern Shan. It depends heavily on the activities of the junta’s military council. At this moment, we are monitoring the movements of [the junta military],” she said.
The TNLA and its allies are already taking up positions in areas surrounding Lashio, where tensions with the junta’s military are strong.
Meanwhile, the junta’s military continues to block stretches of road between Namtu and Hsipaw, as well as between Namtu and Lashio, and on some other major routes.
These moves have raised the prices of goods and commodities for Lashio residents and made it hard for them to travel to other parts of the state and country.
An ethnic Ta’ang activist in Kyaukme Township confirmed that some households in Kyaukme town are already leaving in search of safer places in rural and mountainous areas, fearing the resumption of war.
“They have left the town in advance as they don’t want to be stranded there again if the TNLA and its allies seize it,” he said.
As in Kyaukme, residents of Mongmit are concerned that the TNLA and its allies will attempt to seize back the town, which the group held for a while during Operation 1027.
