Amid its escalating aerial campaign targeting rebel-held territories, Myanmar’s military regime is hosting a “Peace Forum” in Naypyitaw, from which armed groups actively fighting the regime are notably absent.
Addressing the forum, which kicked off on Wednesday, Myanmar junta boss Min Aung Hlaing insisted that Myanmar’s peace efforts must be free from foreign interference and domestic disruptions.
The forum, running from June 25 to 27, has drawn representatives from China, India, Thailand and Russia. It is organized by the junta’s National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Committee (NSPNC).
Attending the forum are representatives from ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), as well as some non-NCA signatories including the United Wa State Army, the National Democratic Alliance Army, the Shan State Progress Party, political parties that have registered for the junta’s election, and civil society organizations, according to junta media.
People’s Defense Force (PDF) groups loyal to the parallel National Unity Government and ethnic rebels actively fighting the regime are absent from the forum.
At the forum, Min Aung Hlaing underscored the importance of maintaining harmonious ties with other countries, but warned against becoming influenced or dominated by them. However, many critics see his regime as a puppet of Beijing.
The junta’s growing reliance on China has been evident in several developments over the past year, such as its repeated affirmation of its support for the one-China policy, Myanmar’s official recognition of Chinese New Year as a public holiday, the implementation of the Public Security Services Law to safeguard Chinese investments, and the regime’s pledge to prioritize the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) project despite ongoing national turmoil. Additionally, the junta has publicly endorsed China’s efforts against online fraud, framing it as a national responsibility.
One notable participant in the forum is Chinese Special Envoy to Myanmar Deng Xijun, who personally oversaw the return of Lashio, the capital of northern Shan State and home to the Myanmar military’s Northeastern Command, to the military regime in April, after pressuring the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) to relinquish the town it captured in August last year. Observers have described it as blatant Chinese interference in Myanmar’s domestic affairs.
Despite Min Aung Hlaing’s statement condemning foreign interference, China is visibly meddling in Myanmar’s affairs by applying pressure on EAOs near the border in northern Shan State.
Operation 1027 launched by the Brotherhood Alliance comprising the MNDAA, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army in late 2023 saw the regime lose control over large swathes of territory in northern Shan State.
China stepped in when the hostilities spilled over into Mandalay Region in central Myanmar. In response, the MNDAA pledged that it would not cooperate with the NUG to launch offensives in Mandalay.
It agreed to stop fighting the regime, and retreat from Lashio, under pressure from China. On the other hand, its ally the TNLA has refused to stop fighting. This explains why MNDAA-controlled territories are spared junta aerial attacks while TNLA-controlled territories are being targeted with near daily air raids.
The regime is also seeking support from Russia to prop up its rule. Russian military technicians have helped the regime with its aerial operations. Min Aung Hlaing once called Vladimir Putin a great world leader.
Min Aung Hlaing said his regime’s “peace process” should continue under the framework of the military-drafted 2008 Constitution and the NCA. The coup-maker urged ethnic armed groups to abandon armed struggle, which he said is against democratic principles. Instead, he urged them to form political parties and participate in politics through dialogue.
He also stressed that the success of the upcoming election—planned for December—will depend on the country’s stability and progress toward peace.
He said his regime keeps the door to peace open, but four people were killed in junta aerial bombing raids on TNLA-controlled Mogoke and Kyaukme towns on Wednesday, as the forum commenced.
The regime declared a ceasefire following the devastating earthquake on March 28, but has repeatedly violated it.
On Thursday, forum participants held closed-door discussions on the elections planned for December. Critics say the forum is just for show to attract international support for the proposed poll, which has been denounced by Western democracies.
