Military analysts and defectors say the Myanmar junta is gearing up for a counteroffensive in northern Shan State following the loss of strategically crucial territory to resistance forces.
Myanmar junta No. 2 Vice Senior General Soe Win visited the garrison town of Wuntho in Sagaing Region on Tuesday, just days after anti-regime groups seized Pinlebu, located just 64 kilometers to the east.
The fall of the heavily fortified Pinlebu, where the regime had deployed over 700 soldiers and warplanes, prompted Soe Win to visit the Sagaing capital of Monywa where the regime’s Northwestern Command is based. He then headed north to meet embattled junta troops and their families in Wuntho.
At around the same time, U Yee Mon, defense minister of the civilian National Unity Government, was inspecting the newly captured Pinlebu.
Wuntho houses Light Infantry Battalions 120 and 111 under the command of the 33rd Light Infantry Division.
Military analysts and defectors now expect the town to become the hub of a junta counteroffensive aimed at recapturing lost territory in northern Sagaing.
“After resistance forces chased away over 700 junta soldiers in Pinlebu, Soe Win and the [Northwestern Command] commander will now be discussing how to regroup,” said former Army captain Zin Yaw, who defected after the 2021 coup.
The regime reportedly defended Pinlebu with 772 troops from Infantry Battalions 50, 87, 301, 305, Light Infantry Battalions 16, 101, 111, 363, 368, and 704 and the junta-aligned Shan Nationalities Army Brigade 614.
Ko Soe Win Swe, an analyst of the Sagaing conflict, said: “Wuntho is a garrison town near Kawlin, Pinlebu and Kyunhla. The regime may establish its command in Wuntho and try to recapture surrounding areas.”
Located on the border of Kachin State, Wuntho Township is bordered by Tigyaing and Kawlin to the east, Indaw to the northeast, Banmauk to the north, Pinlebu to the west and Kawlin to the south.
Zin Yaw estimated the junta would need at least 1,200 troops to restore its control over the strategic townships of Pinlebu, Wuntho and Kawlin. The three townships link northern Sagaing with Kachin State, northern Shan State, Mandalay and Magwe regions and Chin State.
“The military is likely to conduct a ground assault following preparatory air strikes. However, if it is unable to deploy the necessary force of around 1,200 ground troops, resistance groups will be able to repel any offensive,” he said.
Allied resistance groups attacked Pinlebu, located on the border with Kachin State, four times since April 2022 before finally capturing the town earlier this month with their fifth offensive.
Over 50 anti-regime groups from Kawlin, Pinlebu, Wuntho, Katha, Kantbalu, Kale, Shwebo, Mawleik, Sagaing and Yinmabin took part in the offensive under the command of the NUG’s Defense Ministry. The battle lasted for 54 days from August 15.
