Military conscription has taken a bite out of the labor market in Mandalay, according to local business owners facing staff shortages.
Young workers, especially men, employed in Mandalay factories, workshops and restaurants are sheltering at home to avoid being forcibly recruited by the military, say local reports.
“Shops mostly employ young men. But they dare not stay at work, and shop owners dare not keep them because of reports that the regime is conscripting male shopworkers. Many shops in Mandalay are facing shortages of male staff now,” said a business owner in Mandalay.
The workforce at small- and medium-sized enterprises, eateries, teashops and pubs has dropped by half, said business operators.
“I had more than 60 male employees at my factory. But the workforce has now halved after some returned to their villages and others left to work in Thailand. If it goes on like this, businesses will have to suspend operations,” said a sawmill owner in Mandalay Industrial Zone.
Five days after the regime introduced mandatory military service on Feb. 10, teams of junta personnel comprising soldiers, police, ward administrators and militias started collecting personal details of draft-age people in Mandalay. Conscripts were then chosen by lottery.
The teams used the the overnight registration law as a pretext to inspect houses. The law, which was reintroduced straight after the February 2021 coup, grants authorities the right to carry out household inspections without the need for a warrant.
The conscription teams are reportedly targeting local youngsters, internal migrants and internally displaced people taking shelter in Mandalay. Some were released after paying a ransom. Junta soldiers threaten to imprison family members if conscripts run away, said residents.
One young man who has returned to his home in Sagaing Region’s Shwebo after quitting his job in Mandalay Industrial Zone said: “I returned home on March 25 after my family told me to do so. They had concerns for my safety because of reports that the regime was abducting young people.
“I was attending a computer course in Mandalay while working. I had paid the fees for that, but I couldn’t complete the training as I had to return. I was trying for self-improvement, but the regime’s conscription law has shattered my dreams.”
Labor rights activists say the draft will exacerbate workforce shortages.
“It will be a greater loss for business owners if those who quit are skilled workers. We have seen that many young men working in factories, companies and the service industry have quit because of the conscription law,” said labor rights activist Ko Thurein Aung.
Many young people have left Myanmar following the conscription law’s activation, he added.
“Large numbers of people are going to China and Thailand. The number of employees who quit to work in foreign countries has significantly increased. Previously, a workplace would only lose one or two employees to overseas employment in a month. But the number is more than 10 now.”
The 2019 intercensal survey showed Myanmar had a workforce of 33.934 million among its 55 million population. Of those employed, over 4.2 million males and over 3.5 million females are eligible for conscription.
“The pool of labor may shrink due to the conscription law. The country will lose human resources and business may face labor shortages,” said economist U Sein Htay.
The economy as measured by GDP is expected to shrink further due to labor shortages. Labor-intensive industries like shoemaking plants and garment factories have not been able to expand.
Women employees are not yet being conscripted, but labor shortages will worsen once they are summoned, said labor rights activists.
Though the regime announced the first intake of conscripts would begin training in early May, conscripts were witnessed undergoing military training at the end of March.
It also said only 50,000 conscripts per year would be recruited in batches of 5,000 people. But observers calculate the regime will forcibly recruit at least twice that many to fill troop shortages caused by months of heavy losses and mass surrenders as resistance forces gain territory across the country.
