The Myanmar military regime has released its preliminary report on the population census it conducted in October, saying it could only count all the people in 145 out of 330 townships in Myanmar—an indication that it now controls less than half of the country.
The report says that the regime managed a complete population census in 145 townships, partial counts in 127 townships, and was unable to collect any data in 58 townships.
As the junta’s Immigration Ministry released the preliminary census report on Tuesday in Naypyitaw, minister Myint Khaing stated that the current estimated population of Myanmar is over 51 million, of whom more than 32 million were counted in the latest census. Around 19 million people live in areas where the census could not be conducted, he said.
Myanmar’s neighbors China and India helped with the junta’s census process.
Though the junta has repeatedly referred to its census as a “nationwide population and household census,” it was unable to send enumerators to any of the dozens of towns and townships it has lost control of in northern Shan State and Rakhine State, or in territories where anti-regime groups are fighting for control in Kachin, Karenni, Karen and Chin states, and central Myanmar.
The latest census was the country’s fourth nationwide population census since independence in 1948. The first two were conducted in 1973 and 1983 under the rule of military dictator Ne Win, and the third in 2014 under a quasi-civilian government led by ex-general Thein Sein.
The three previous censuses were conducted across most of the country despite armed conflicts.
The latest census overseen by Min Aung Hlaing ended in failure as his regime struggled to curb the popular armed revolt that has inflicted unprecedented defeats on the Myanmar military.
The census, the first step in an election the junta plans to hold next year, was initially scheduled for Oct. 1-15. Widespread clashes however forced the regime to extend the census until the second week of December.
Even in downtown Yangon, census takers guarded by armed police rushed to collect data as they feared for their safety.
The attempted population count was also rocked by bomb attacks on ward administration offices and targeted attacks against census takers in rural areas. Some towns fell into the hands of anti-regime groups as the regime was conducting the census.
The junta’s enumerators did not visit door to door out of concern for their safety and also because people were unwilling to cooperate. Meanwhile, respondents did not provide accurate answers due to their distrust of the regime, leading to the conclusion that the census data could not be accurate.
According to the preliminary report released by the regime, 15 million of the people it counted are male and the remaining 17 million are female.
By region, Yangon has the largest population, while Karenni (Kayah) State has the smallest.
The 2014 census conducted under Thein Sein’s quasi-civilian government recorded a population of 51.5 million, while the 2024 census estimates a slight decrease to 51.3 million.
Myint Kyaing said his ministry would determine the cause of decline, and would release the entire report by the end of 2025.
There has been criticism of using the flawed census as the basis to compile voter lists for the poll the regime plans to hold next year. Junta boss Min Aung Hlaing has pledged to hold elections, saying they will be conducted in phases in safe regions.
