The Myanmar junta officially completed the country’s latest population census on Tuesday. Conducted on Oct. 1-15, the so-called “nationwide” census, organized by the military regime to facilitate its bogus election, ended up in failure.
It was the country’s fourth nationwide population census since independence in 1948. The first two were conducted in 1973 and 1983 under the rule of military dictator Ne Win, and the third in 2014 under a quasi-civilian government led by ex-general Thein Sein.
The three previous censuses were conducted across most of the country despite armed conflicts.
According to census reports, 97.1 percent of the population was counted in the first population census in April 1973. Nearly 98 per cent of the population was counted in the 2014 census in April 2014.
Though the current regime has repeatedly referred to its census as a “nationwide population and household census,” it could not send enumerators to any of the dozens of towns and townships it has lost control of in northern Shan State and Rakhine, or in territories where anti-regime groups are fighting for control in Kachin, Karenni (Kayah), Karen and Chin states, and central Myanmar.
At a meeting of the military-dominated National Defense and Security Council in January 2023, junta boss Min Aung Hlaing admitted that his regime only had total control of 198 out of 330 townships in Myanmar.
That was even before the Brotherhood Alliance launched its Operation 1027 offensive in northern Shan State, which would turn the tide of the armed revolution against the regime, and the Arakan Army had yet to launch its offensive in Rakhine.
Since late 2023, the regime has lost almost the entirety of northern Shan State including the capital Lashio, and some 20 plus towns. Ten out of 17 townships have fallen into the hands of the AA in Rakhine. The regime has also lost control over large swathes of territory in Kachin, Karenni, Chin, and central Myanmar including in Mandalay Region.
There were criticisms over the timing of the census as millions have been displaced by the civil war, and by recent floods—the worst in five decades, with hundreds of thousands of flood victims still waiting for relief supplies in central Myanmar, southern Shan State, and Karenni and Karen states. Meanwhile, the regime’s enforcement of a mandatory military service law in February has prompted the exodus of many young people.
The attempted population count has been rocked by bomb attacks on ward administration offices and targeted attacks against census takers. People’s Defense Force (PDF) groups captured Pinlebu, a town on the border of Kachin State and Sagaing Region, in the first week of October.
In fact, the regime does not even have complete control over Madaya, which is just a one-hour drive from Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city. Even in downtown Yangon, the regime dared not send census takers out alone; they were guarded by armed soldiers and police. And that’s to say nothing of the areas that are out of the reach of the junta’s administrative mechanism.
The regime said it would take longer to conduct the census in certain areas depending on security conditions.
There were criticisms of the current census questionnaires being intrusive amid fears over the junta’s possible abuse of the data to target dissidents. The questionnaire comprised 68 questions, while the previous census in 2014 only consisted of 41 questions.
The junta’s enumerators did not bother to go door to door even in Yangon. They rushed through the census questionnaires because of concerns over their safety and also because people were unwilling to answer. Moreover, respondents did not provide correct answers because of their distrust of the regime. So, there is no way the census data can be accurate.
According to Myanmar’s Population and Households Census Law of 2013, “information shall not be used for any other administrative purposes at an individual level except for those matters related to the Census.”
The junta also claimed that authorities would not take any action or make arrests based on information obtained through the census, but few people believe that.
One Yangon resident said: “They asked me if any family member of mine is abroad. I said no just to avoid further questions, such as whether he had served in the military or if he was legally allowed to go abroad.”
Family members of striking civil servants and those who had joined the armed revolution were worried about answering the junta’s census questionnaires, however.
Under such circumstances, the voter lists, which the regime will compile based on incomplete and incorrect census data, can’t be accurate.
However, in an address to mark the ninth anniversary of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement on Tuesday, junta boss Min Aung Hlaing reiterated that his regime would hold a multi-party general election after conducting the census.
The diplomatically isolated regime did not receive any assistance from the United Nations or the international community for the country’s latest census. The UN helped Myanmar with previous censuses.
The 2014 census cost US$75 million, of which international agencies and foreign governments contributed $60 million, so the Thein Sein government only needed to spend $15 million.
The regime said the latest census would cost 5.6 billion kyats ($2.66 million). It appears that 5.6 billion kyats of public funds have been squandered for nothing.
