The military regime is organizing three columns of troops in Mongyai, Namlan and Tangyan towns respectively to retake Lashio, the capital of northern Shan State near the Chinese border, according to sources.
One month after Lashio and the North Eastern Command headquarters it hosted fell into the hands of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the regime reconstituted the North Eastern Command in Mongyai, 96 km south of Lashio.
The regime still controls Namlan and Tangyan, the two towns bordering Mongyai. The regime has been sending troops, weapons and ammunition to the three towns, a Mongyai resident told The Irrawaddy.
“The regime has been amassing troops for more than a month. In Mongyai, it is primarily mustering troops. In Tangyan and Namlan, it is stocking up howitzers and ammunition. In Mongyai, the military and the Kokang group [MNDAA] are deployed close together, and military tensions are apparently running high.”
Many of the reinforcements the regime has been sending to Mongyai are recruits who were drafted under the mandatory military service law, he said. The weapons and ammunition mainly come from the Eastern Central Command based in Kholam in southern Shan State, he said.
On Oct. 8, junta troops repaired a flood-damaged bridge and transported more than 10 military vehicles full of weapons and ammunition to Namlan, according to locals.
The regime also carried out bombing raids in September in rural areas of Lashio and Mongyai townships targeting villages where it assumed MNDAA troops were based.
The MNDAA has reportedly taken up positions in strategic locations to defend Lashio.
One Lashio resident said the United Wa State Army (UWSA) will be the game changer in the battle for Lashio.
The regime must use the Tangyan-Nampawng-Lashio road to advance on Lashio, he explained. During the MNDAA’s assault on Lashio, UWSA troops crossed the Salween River with the junta’s approval to protect Tangyan.
UWSA troops also entered Lashio with the approval of the MNDAA after the battle.
UWSA and MNDAA troops, as well as those of a junta-allied militia group, are all present on the road. MNDAA troops are deployed in Nampawng, which is located just 40 km from Lashio. The remaining stretches between Nampawng and Tangyan are controlled by the UWSA and the militia group.
“It all depends on the UWSA. If the Wa group take sides with the regime, the offensive will be easier. But if the Wa group doesn’t, I doubt junta troops would even reach Nampawng,” he said.
During the battle for control of Lashio in early August, the regime attempted to send reinforcements to the city via the Tangyan-Nampawng-Lashio road. As the UWSA troops just stood by, the junta troops did not even reach Nampawng, but were crushed by the MNDAA troops on the way.
The UWSA has however deployed more troops along the road, running checkpoints. There have been tensions between MNDAA and UWSA troops on the ground over access to the road, said the Lashio resident.
A leaked meeting record revealed that Chinese special envoy to Myanmar Deng Xijun said at a secret meeting with the UWSA in Yunnan Province that China does not recognize the MNDAA’s control of Lashio and will only lift blockades on the MNDAA after the group hands over Lashio to the regime.
Despite pressure from China, the MNDAA said it would retain the right to self-defense. The ethnic armed group maintains its administrative functions in Lashio though the regime has been targeting the town with nearly daily aerial bombardments.
