Amid heavy military defeats in Rakhine State, junta boss Min Aung Hlaing reshuffled his regime on Wednesday, replacing General Tin Aung San with General Maung Maung Aye as the defense minister. In a key promotion, Min Aung Hlaing’s trusted aide Quartermaster-General Lieutenant General Kyaw Swar Lin became the Chief of the General Staff (Army, Navy and Air Force), succeeding Maung Maung Aye and replacing him as the junta No. 3.
Tin Aung San has become the minster for the office of prime minister, an inactive post. Min Aung Hlaing is the self-appointed prime minister of the regime.
Maung Maung Aye became Chief of the General Staff (Army, Navy and Air Force) after the coup in February 2021. He is the third general to lead the Defense Ministry—considered to be an inactive post, a “desk officer” involved in procurement—in the nearly four years since the coup. It is likely that Min Aung Hlaing has never trusted Maung Maung Aye, as he was close to former General Shwe Mann, now an arch enemy of Min Aung Hlaing and his former boss. Maung Maung Aye’s predecessors were General Mya Tun Oo (who is currently communications and transport minister), and former Navy chief Tin Aung San.
The anti-regime Operation 1027 broke out while Tin Aung San was serving as defense minister. The operation saw the regime lose large swathes of territory in northern Shan State including the Northeastern Command based in Lashio, as well as in Kachin, Karenni, Chin and Rakhine states and central Myanmar.
The reshuffle comes after the regime lost 12 of 17 townships in Rakhine over the past 13 months, with the Western Command headquarters in Ann town on the verge of falling.
The regime has been losing ground on multiple fronts over the past year, but all Min Aung Hlaing has thought to do is to make substitutions in an effort to try and change the result, finally assigning Maung Maung Aye to deal with the mess.
The reshuffle also sees Kyaw Swar Lin, who was part of the 35th intake of the Defense Services Academy, become the junta’s No. 3 man at the age of 53. Observers say Kyaw Swar Lin has no special individual qualities, but his blind obedience to Min Aung Hlaing has won the junta leader’s trust and fondness.
Kyaw Swar Lin is the third Chief of the General Staff (Army, Navy and Air Force) since the coup, following Mya Tun Oo and Maung Maung Aye. The rapid turnover shows that the junta boss hasn’t been able to find the right person to curb the growing armed revolt.
He served as a personal staff officer for Maung Aye, deputy supremo of the previous military regime led by Than Shwe. He evaded combat duty to become the country’s youngest lieutenant general at 45.
He also played an important part in getting the huge Maravijaya Buddha statue built in Naypyitaw, a source of pride for Min Aung Hlaing.
When Min Aung Hlaing visits the Buddha image, Kyaw Swar Lin personally drives the buggy that takes the junta boss around the compound.
Due to his relatively young age, Kyaw Swar Lin is widely tipped to become the next military chief or deputy chief when Min Aung Hlaing retires.
The position of chief of the general staff is normally held by a general. So, it is likely that Kyaw Swar Lin will be promoted to general. If so, he will become the youngest of 10 generals in a seriously depleted army.
Exit strategy?
The reshuffle is regarded as Min Aung Hlaing’s latest move to consolidate power amid the fighting in Rakhine State. However, observers said the shakeup is not entirely related to the regime’s losses there.
What is likely is that Min Aung Hlaing is planning an exit strategy, like his predecessor Senior General Than Shwe, who left the military and the government of the then regime—the State Peace and Development Council—in 2011. He has since retired.
Before doing so he appointed Min Aung Hlaing as chief of staff before handing him the most powerful commander-in-chief position in 2011-12. The then regime No. 2, General Maung Aye, recommended him for the position.
With an election looming over Myanmar next year, the reshuffle indicates that Min Aung Hlaing is contemplating what the future holds for him, whether it’s in Myanmar politics or some other eventuality: retirement?; continue as a politician, possibly becoming president?; ways to avoid being overthrown? This could explain his decision to elevate trusted officers to the top positions. Whatever he decides to do in 2025, he wants to make sure he is secure.
Meanwhile, the regime has six deputy prime ministers: Deputy junta chief Soe Win; Transport and Communications Minister Mya Tun Oo; Minister of Planning and Finance Win Shein; Foreign Minister Than Swe; Defense Minister Maung Maung Aye; and Prime Minister’s Office Minister Tin Aung San.
Observers say the situation exemplifies the old saying “Too many cooks spoil the broth.”
