The ethnic Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) resumed talks with the military regime in Kunming on Saturday, focusing on territorial control of the northern Shan State capital Lashio.
China is pressuring the MNDAA to hand Lashio, which it seized in August last year together with the regime’s Northeastern Command, back to the junta.
The first day of talks ended in an impasse as junta representatives demanded the return of the whole of Lashio Township, while the MNDAA only floated handing over some wards in Lashio town, a source close to MNDAA’s central committee told The Irrawaddy.
“Since the MNDAA is the side that has won the war, they want to leverage this in their talks with the regime,” the source said. “If only some neighborhoods in Lashio city are returned, there will be significant risks for the regime to return, so it’s unlikely to accept that. It’s also possible that the MNDAA is stalling for time. It’s hard to predict the political maneuvers they are playing.”
The source added the MNDAA is probably just attempting to appease China but has no real desire to cede Lashio.
China is leaning on both sides to resume border trade halted by fighting in northern Shan State, threatening to close border crossings with MNDAA-controlled areas again unless an agreement is reached.
The MNDAA captured Kokang and surrounding areas during anti-regime Operation 1027 in 2023 and 2024. China had previously closed border crossings with MNDAA territories to stop the ethnic rebels from fighting the regime, but reopened them after the MNDAA declared a ceasefire. It still bans the trade of pharmaceuticals to MNDAA-controlled areas.
For its part, the MNDAA is demanding that the junta recognize its autonomy over Kutkai, Hsenwi, Kokang, and Monekoe districts as well as the Kokang capital Laukkai on the Chinese border.
The Chinese government summoned MNDAA officials from the four districts for discussions for over a week prior to the talks, apparently to soften them up.
After the first day of the meeting, the MNDAA warned of possible junta airstrikes on Lashio. Residents have also expressed fears of air raids, though none had been reported as of Monday.
Last week, hundreds of residents staged a “silent” flash-mob protest pleading with the MNDAA not to abandon Lashio and calling on China to stop interfering in Myanmar’s affairs.
MNDAA members and Lashio residents interviewed by The Irrawaddy denied reports that MNDAA troops are already being withdrawn.
“For now, all the MNDAA’s administrative departments are operating,” a resident said. “The hospital is running day and night. MNDAA troops haven’t withdrawn. It’s fake news. The MNDAA has said nothing about its withdrawal.”
The town was busy as usual on Sunday, and the MNDAA has announced plans for large-scale Thingyan celebrations in April.
MNDAA troops also continue to hold positions at Hoya village near the strategic junction to Mongyai, about 8 km away, where the regime has re-established the Northeastern Command after losing control of Lashio.
On March 12, Chinese special envoy to Myanmar Deng Xijun met junta boss Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyitaw to discuss border trade among other topics, according to junta media.
