The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) on September 4 called for China’s mediation in Myanmar’s conflicts and said it would not cooperate with the civilian National Unity Government (NUG).
Despite the statement, the regime continued bombing raids on the northern Shan State capital, Lashio, killing civilians and damaging property.
China specialist Dr Hla Kyaw Zaw recently talked to The Irrawaddy about the MNDAA’s statement and Beijing’s influence.
Why has the regime kept bombing Lashio, despite the MNDAA’s proposal of talks with China’s mediation?
This shows that the military does not accept the offer of talks. It appears that the MNDAA knows that the regime will not stop fighting. So the MNDAA issued the statement.
It has stated that it would stop fighting immediately but it retains the right to self-defense. It is good that the regime has carried out attacks because it lets the MNDAA fight back.
I heard the regime wants Lashio back. The MNDAA can’t give it back. So it said it has no ties to the NUG. The ceasefire will not happen. They will continue to fight.
Why has the MNDAA said it will not cooperate with the NUG militarily and politically?
[The NUG’s foreign minister] Daw Zin Mar Aung has asked if China thinks of the civilian government as pro-western and said the NUG needed to show that it was not.
China has said no foreign power should interfere in Myanmar. It is a warning for the US and other western countries. China thinks that the NUG is under the western thumb.
Organizations based along the Chinese border can’t resist Beijing’s pressure.
[Arakan Army chief] Major General Tun Myat Naing said armed groups have to avoid disrupting China’s policies.
Everyone relies on China economically. When China says something, they have to respond.
China wants a ceasefire and dialogue.
It has been pushing bit by bit. So armed organizations in northern Myanmar, including the MNDAA, try to do what China says while pursuing their ambitions.
They issue statements that can be interpreted in various ways.
Will the MNDAA statement affect the fighting?
No, it will not. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army has kept fighting the regime and the fighting will continue. China is putting on pressure. Groups like the MNDAA close to China will listen to what Beijing says. Others will keep doing their job.
The Arakan Army is less affected and keeps fighting.
Will the MNDAA resume attacks in response to junta airstrikes?
The MNDAA will keep doing its job. Though it is saying it will stop fighting and engage in talks, it provides training for resistance fighters in its territory.
It is also installing civilian administrations in territory seized from the regime.
It might not be fighting but it keeps doing its job. I heard it is digging bomb shelters for civilians. But the regime will not give up so fighting is likely to continue.
How does the regime regard Chinese calls for peace talks?
The regime still thinks it can win the war if it fights hard. That’s why it is saying it will recapture Lashio and the Northeastern Command.
It is possible the junta leadership does not know the situation on the ground.
They might not be aware of how bad the situation is so they still think they can win.
They don’t want to listen and will not join peace talks. The fighting will continue. The situation will only worsen.
How does China view ongoing junta airstrikes?
China has established a free market with ASEAN but there must be peace in Myanmar, which lies on the trade route. Its Silk Road projects in Myanmar are not making any progress. So it is pushing all the combatants.
But China has time. It is not in a hurry. It will not push harder than it is doing now.
It is Myanmar’s people who have to determine the country’s fate. We can’t wait. China’s interests will not be as affected and it will only push gently.
But we can’t wait. We have sacrificed our blood. We have to do our job quickly.
When China acts in its national interests, we have to respond because it is our neighbor and a superpower.
But we can’t do whatever China says. We have to pursue our ambitions, rely on ourselves and work hard.
